房地产周度销售全数据跟踪：11月至今全局销量较10月转负 CDS或有筑底反弹可能支持风险偏好修复

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    1年期及_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>5年期以_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上LPR分别为4.15%，4._blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>80%，均较_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上期_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下调5 bp；_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>住_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>建_blank class=infotextkey>部：_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2019年_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全国_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>棚_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>改_blank class=infotextkey>计划提前_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>超额_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>完成；_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上海：_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>自贸区临港_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新片区对外_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>正式_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>发_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>布了_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>支持_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人才_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>发展若干_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>举措。

    _blank class=infotextkey>3，板块_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行情与_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>估值：a.自19年5月起_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中国CDS_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>指数反弹，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>风险偏好至底_blank class=infotextkey>部_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>持续_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>回升，于6月开始_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>降，8月低位反弹后_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>再次_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>降：长端_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>利率_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>由于贸易摩擦自5月初起长端_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>利率_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>进入_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下行通道，8月至_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>今开始_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>回升：CDS_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>近期依旧处于震荡_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下行_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>阶段，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>风险偏好依旧较低反应_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>市场对_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>利率_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下行仍_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有期望，结_blank class=infotextkey>合LPR_blank class=infotextkey>定_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>按揭_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>利率进一步_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>强化_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>利率传导逻辑，或_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>利好_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地产板块；b.

    板块_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行情：_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上周，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>信_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地产_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>指数涨幅+1.1%，较沪_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>深_blank class=infotextkey>300的相对_blank class=infotextkey>收益为+1.8%，在_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>29个_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大类_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行业_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>排名_blank class=infotextkey>第15；19年，板块_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>超额_blank class=infotextkey>收益_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>1_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2月_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>持续_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>降，_blank class=infotextkey>3_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>出现较为_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>明显_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>超额_blank class=infotextkey>收益，4月至_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>今较沪_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>深_blank class=infotextkey>300_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>超额_blank class=infotextkey>收益逐渐消失，19年_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>累计_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>超额_blank class=infotextkey>收益在_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>29个_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大类_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行业排_blank class=infotextkey>第_blank class=infotextkey>15名；c.个股_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行情：_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上周，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>信_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地产板块涨幅top5的个股分别为：_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中迪_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资、_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中润_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>资源、鲁_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>商_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>置业、ST_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大控、_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>南都_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>物业：_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2019年至_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>今，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>信_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地产板块_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>超额_blank class=infotextkey>收益top5的个股分别为：_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中航善达、鲁_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>商_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>置业、哈_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高科、_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大名城，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>万业_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>企业。

    4，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>重点_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司动态追踪：【福_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>星_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>股份】截至_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2019年_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>11月18日，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司已_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>累计_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>回购_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>股份_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2，04_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>1._blank class=infotextkey>38_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>万股，占_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司总_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>股本_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2.1_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2%，支付总_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金额为86，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>26_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>万元；【苏宁_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>环球】截至_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2019年_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>11月_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>19日，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>累计_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>回购_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>股份_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2.87亿股，占_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司总_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>股本9.48%，总_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金额：9._blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>99_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>亿元；【_blank class=infotextkey>天健_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>集团】拟_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>转让_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全资_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>子_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>海_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>南_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>酒店_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>100%_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>股权，净_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>资产评_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>估值：_blank class=infotextkey>3，_blank class=infotextkey>369.49_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>万元；【_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>万科A】_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2018年9月_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>19日至_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2019年_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>11月_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2日，钝盛华_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>及其一致_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行动_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人持_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>万科A股_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>股份_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>累计减_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>少5.00%。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>目前钟盛华_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>及其一致_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行动_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人持_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>万科A股占_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司总_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>股本的_blank class=infotextkey>比例约为_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>10%.

    _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>风险提示：_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>短期行_blank class=infotextkey>政_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>调控_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>超预期，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>长效机制_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>超预期，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>短期_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>龙_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>头_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>销售_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>回落幅度_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大幅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>超越_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>市场预期，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>三四线_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>销售_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>回调_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>超预期