油价暴跌、黄金暴涨，并非全球经济衰退信号

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　　日益复杂的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>国际贸易摩擦是当_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>市场担心_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全球_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经_blank class=infotextkey>济_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>增速_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>主要因素之一，而_blank class=infotextkey>近来_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>澳_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大利亚、_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新西兰、_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>印度等央_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>降息_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>政策，_blank class=infotextkey>以及美_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>联储开始讨论_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>降息可能，则进一步加_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>重了_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>市场对_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全球_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经_blank class=infotextkey>济_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>走势的疑虑。毕竟从_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经_blank class=infotextkey>济周期_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上看，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>降息_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>政策从来_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>就_blank class=infotextkey>不是_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>一个令_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>市场感到_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>乐观的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>信号。

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　　之于_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>国际梁_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>价格，可能与许_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>多_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>国家储备_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>资产结构的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>调整也_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有一_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>定的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>关_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>系。梁_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金的产量和_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>消费用量是一_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>定的，增加梁_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金储备_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>资产以_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>代替_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>美元_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>资产等，_blank class=infotextkey>不可避免_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会对_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>国际梁_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>价格产生扰动。从_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>最_blank class=infotextkey>近的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>国际梁_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>价格与_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>美元_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>指数的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>走势看，这种_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>走势的背离，一_blank class=infotextkey>定程度_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上反映了梁_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>价格的走_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高，虽与_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全球_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经_blank class=infotextkey>济_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>波动_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>压力增加_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有关，但并_blank class=infotextkey>不_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全是_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>这个因素导致的。

　　总之，当前_blank class=infotextkey>最_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>需要管控的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>风险是_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>国际贸易摩擦_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>带来的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>国际_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>产业_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>生态链_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>重塑，_blank class=infotextkey>以及由此_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>带来的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经_blank class=infotextkey>济_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>波动噪音。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>国际贸易_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>领域的_blank class=infotextkey>不确_blank class=infotextkey>定性，一旦转向基于_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>合作的猎鹿_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>博弈，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>国际_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金融_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>市场的疑云或将_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会被驱散。(刘忠言 专栏作家)