专访深圳市明达资产管理有限公司董事长刘明达

■本报_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>记者张志伟赵琳_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>王晓悦

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刘明达已过_blank class=infotextkey>不惑之年,但轮廓圆润的脸庞让他_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>显得年轻。谈起_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资,他更是如年轻_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人般情绪激昂、笑声_blank class=infotextkey>不绝,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“证券_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>老顽童_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”的称号可谓名_blank class=infotextkey>不虚传。

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刘明达的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>办_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公室独_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>特色,与_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>其他_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司_blank class=infotextkey>董事长的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>办_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公室差_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>异_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>明显,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>办_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公桌_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>没_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有电脑,一目了然,空荡荡的。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“要让_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>自己孤独,远离喧闹的声音。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”刘明达_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>告诉_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>记者,他已_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>五年基本_blank class=infotextkey>不看盘,_blank class=infotextkey>不_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>需要_blank class=infotextkey>配备电脑。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“作决策的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>时候,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>一个_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人在海边_blank class=infotextkey>不停_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地徘徊。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”刘明达的决策_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>方式与_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>其他_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司的_blank class=infotextkey>董事长似乎也_blank class=infotextkey>不同。

_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经历_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>多轮牛熊市的洗礼,刘明达的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资宝典里纳入了宏观_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经_blank class=infotextkey>济_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>形势研判、_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中观的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>产业链_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>研究和微观的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>个股研究,在延续_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>超强_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选股能力的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>同_blank class=infotextkey>时也习得了预判_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>风险的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>技巧。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>这家_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>目前_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>规模已_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>超百_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>亿元的阳光私募在掌门_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人刘明达的带领_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下,正尝试走_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新的台阶。

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为了_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>研究某养猪_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>企业,刘明达曾聘请_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>专业的顾问_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>住进_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>企业的种猪场。顾问需与猪朝夕相处,绿本转红本补差价,直接数母猪的产仔数量,与_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上市_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司披露的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>数据_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>进行比对。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“我和_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司也_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>比较熟,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>再三_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>要求_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司就答应让_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>我们进猪场。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”刘明达也_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>常_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>常_blank class=infotextkey>鼓励_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>研究员,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>关心的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司哪能找_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>不到_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人,在_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中国只要打三个电话,_blank class=infotextkey>就能_blank class=infotextkey>找到_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>一个熟_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”

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_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>20_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>1_blank class=infotextkey>3年_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>由于基本_blank class=infotextkey>面_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>变化导致_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>白_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>酒板块_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下跌,明达_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>资产_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>却做到提前离场规避_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>风险,其_blank class=infotextkey>原因正是对_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行业周期的洞察。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>我们观测到当_blank class=infotextkey>时整个_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行业在扩产,但是_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>白_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>酒的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>需求总量_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>一直_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>没_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>明显的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>变化,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>这个_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>就是_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行业很_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>一个_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>泡沫。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”刘明达向_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>记者_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>回忆道。

_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>20_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>1_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>5年,明达_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>资产_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>再次敏锐观察到,茅台的预_blank class=infotextkey>收款_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>连续_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>几个季度_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>持续_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>改善。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2015_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>年底,茅台的预_blank class=infotextkey>收款_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>超过_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>80_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>亿元,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>超过_blank class=infotextkey>历史_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>最_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>水平70_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>亿元预_blank class=infotextkey>收款。基于扎实的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>调研和论证,明达_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>资产在_blank class=infotextkey>贵州茅台_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>股价底_blank class=infotextkey>部买入,取得惊_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人的_blank class=infotextkey>收益。

_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“要去_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>发现_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>供应链_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中的蝴蝶效应。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”刘明达_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>表示,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行业的动向_blank class=infotextkey>不仅反映在_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上市_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>库存里,还反映在经销_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>商和_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>消费者的仓_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>库里,只_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有对_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>这些_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>东西_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有足够洞察,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>才能分辨_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行业周期的运转。

挖掘_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>产业、个股的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>真相,是刘明达在实践_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中总结的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资宝典。用宏观视野_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>寻找_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资方向,则是_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2008_blank class=infotextkey>年的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行情给刘明达的启示。

_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2007年牛市接_blank class=infotextkey>近尾声之_blank class=infotextkey>时,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全球_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经_blank class=infotextkey>济_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>危机的_blank class=infotextkey>不利_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>消息也传染给A股,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2008年,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>沪指_blank class=infotextkey>最低_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下跌至1664.9_blank class=infotextkey>3点。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>无法_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>接受,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>这些_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司都挺_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>好的,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>怎么_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>暴跌?_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”刘明达感到挫败,他_blank class=infotextkey>不明白,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>价值_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>理念_blank class=infotextkey>哪里错了?

_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>寻找_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2008年熊市背_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>后的逻辑,刘明达前往_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>美国_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>商_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>学院_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>学习宏观_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经_blank class=infotextkey>济,感到豁然开朗。他_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>告诉_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>记者,此前明达_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>资产只_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>研究微观,甚至只_blank class=infotextkey>关注_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>消费股_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>产业链,视野太窄。补_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上宏观_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>这个_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>短板之后,就_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>可_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大周期的指导_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资,规避宏观_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经_blank class=infotextkey>济运转_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>带来的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>风险。

_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“宏观和微观结_blank class=infotextkey>合,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选择_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>好的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司,且持仓_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>时间_blank class=infotextkey>不偏离周期太远,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>三年_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>时间其_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>价值一_blank class=infotextkey>定_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有相应的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>体现。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”刘明达_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>自_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>信_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地说道。

_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>简_blank class=infotextkey>单_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>就要_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>放弃_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>一些_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>东西

_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“让_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资做得_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>简_blank class=infotextkey>单,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>就是要_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>放弃_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>一些_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>东西。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>价值_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资派的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>集_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>体偶像巴菲特只投_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>自己看得懂的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>领域,刘明达也是_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>如此,坚守_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>自己的能力圈。

坚持这一_blank class=infotextkey>原则,就_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>需要与_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人性的贪婪做斗争。

_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2007_blank class=infotextkey>年的牛市_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>银行股_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>成为香饽饽,该板块_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>平均市盈率峰值达到4_blank class=infotextkey>3.18倍,给追捧_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>消费股的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>价值_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资派_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>造成巨_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>心理_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>冲击。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“内心感到挫败,在_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2007_blank class=infotextkey>年的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上涨_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中,很_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>多钱_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>没_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有挣到。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”但这_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>一段_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经历并未让刘明达变得贪婪,_blank class=infotextkey>时至_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>今日他依然认为_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>银行股的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高杠杆蕴_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>含着_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>风险,但在_blank class=infotextkey>合适的_blank class=infotextkey>时机也_blank class=infotextkey>不排除_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会做适当_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>配置。

刘明达_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>表示,傻瓜_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>就是坚守能力圈,专注_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>自己看得懂的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>领域,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>重点_blank class=infotextkey>关注寡_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>头蓝筹股。

_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“为_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>什么寡_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>头好,因为_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>存量_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经_blank class=infotextkey>济_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下好生意越来越_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>少,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大家都_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>需要蓝筹股,寡_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>头赚钱就越来越容易。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”刘明达向_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>记者说道。

早在_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>201_blank class=infotextkey>4年,刘明达就断言蓝筹股的稀缺性_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会越来越_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>明显,权_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>重蓝筹股则_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会享受一_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>定的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>估值溢价。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>随后_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>三年的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>市场_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>走势_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>验证了刘明达的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>理论,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2017年A股_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>市场呈现二_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>八效应;_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经历_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2018年_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大跌后,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2019年年初_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>率先抬_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>头的也是蓝筹股。

刘明达认为,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>目前的宏观_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经_blank class=infotextkey>济_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>环境_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>决_blank class=infotextkey>定蓝筹稀缺的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>趋势仍将_blank class=infotextkey>继续。

德意志_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>银行的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>数据_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>显示,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>目前_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全球约_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有15_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>万亿_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>美元的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>政府债券_blank class=infotextkey>收益率为负,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>海外负_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>利率_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>时_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>代悄然来临。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“海量的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>资产_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>保值_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>需求_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会让_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>股票这一品种_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>成为债券的替_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>代品,而_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中国_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>企业的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高派息必然_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>吸引_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大量_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全球_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>长期资本入场。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”刘明达_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>表示,MSCI扩容、富_blank class=infotextkey>时_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>指数纳入等,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>未来外资对A股买入_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>需求接_blank class=infotextkey>近_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>8000亿_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>美元,_blank class=infotextkey>合计5_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>万_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>多_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>亿元_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人民币,而_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>这些跟踪_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>指数买入的标的和沪_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>深_blank class=infotextkey>300_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>指数的标的很接_blank class=infotextkey>近,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>8000亿_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>美元_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>相当于买入沪_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>深_blank class=infotextkey>300自由_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>流通市值的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>50%。此外,在低_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>利率_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>背景_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>保险_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司对_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>长期、稳健的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资品种的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>需求也很_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高。

_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“抢食_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”蓝筹者众,但在刘明达严苛的筛_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>标准_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下,_blank class=infotextkey>真正的蓝筹股并_blank class=infotextkey>不_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>多。

_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>如何_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>挑_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选标的?刘明达提两个_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>标准,一是_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上市_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司要_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有足够_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>壁垒,这_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>要求_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司在_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>未来_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>10年找_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>不到强_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有力的_blank class=infotextkey>竞争对手,且净_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>资产_blank class=infotextkey>收益率(简称ROE)_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大于15%。二是_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上市_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司拥_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>良好的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>现_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>流,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>具_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>体_blank class=infotextkey>指标是_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经营性_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>现_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>流净额_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>长期_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高于净利润。《_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>证券_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>日报》_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>记者_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>按照这两个_blank class=infotextkey>指标对沪_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>深两市_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上市_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2018_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>进行筛_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>得到蓝筹股约_blank class=infotextkey>300家。

_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“这种供求_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>关_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>系_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>决_blank class=infotextkey>定,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>未来蓝筹股_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会越来越稀缺,蓝筹的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>估值_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>难想象的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”刘明达谈起西方_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地产_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资界的断崖_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>理论,即市_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中心_blank class=infotextkey>最贵的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>子和非市_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中心_blank class=infotextkey>最_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>便宜的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>子之间_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>10倍的价差。他认为,这一_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>理论也_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会在蓝筹股和_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>小市值_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>股票_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>验证,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“该贵的_blank class=infotextkey>不贵,该_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>便宜的_blank class=infotextkey>不_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>便宜_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”,是永_blank class=infotextkey>恒的_blank class=infotextkey>真理。

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