深圳現“史詩級土拍”：難言房價暴漲信號-小产权房558

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　　長安論道

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　　這兩天，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>深圳迎來了一場被媒體稱之為_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“史詩級_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”的 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>住宅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>用_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地拍賣爭奪戰。在此次引發廣泛關注的拍賣會_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>共_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>80余家_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房企參與競拍，而競拍者繳納的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>保証_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金，就_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>超過_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>1000億元。而此次推出的5宗_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>住宅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>用_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地，幾乎_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全_blank class=infotextkey>部都以 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>最_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高價被競拍者_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“秒殺_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”。

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　　事實_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上，進入_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>今年以來，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>土_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地拍賣市場_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>一直_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高燒_blank class=infotextkey>不_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>退。據市場_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>研究機構的統計，截至_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>今年5月_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>30日，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全國熱點_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>城市_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>土_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地市場普遍出現了持續_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高位運_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行的態勢，其_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中50_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>重點_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>城市賣_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金額_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高達1.51萬億元，同比_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上升幅度達8.5%。其_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中，賣_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金額_blank class=infotextkey>最_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>多的是_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>杭州，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高達_blank class=infotextkey>11_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>29億元。而國家統計局_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>布的數據，似乎_blank class=infotextkey>更能反映_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>土_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地拍賣市場的長期增長趨勢：_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2018年_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全國_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>土_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>使用權出讓_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>收入65_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>096億元，同比增長_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>25%，横沥，創_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下歷史_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高。

　　具體來說，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>深圳之所以會出現_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>土_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地拍賣過程_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>火爆現象，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>主要_blank class=infotextkey>原因還在於_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>住宅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>用_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>短期稀缺所致。在_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>今年前5個月，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>深圳_blank class=infotextkey>共_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>成功出讓9宗_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地塊，其_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中1宗為_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>商業_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>用_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地、8宗為工業_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>用_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地，而_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>住宅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>用_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地卻一塊都沒_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有。更讓開發_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>商擔憂的是，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>深圳_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2018年至_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>20_blank class=infotextkey>3_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>5年預期隻_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有40%的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>商品_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>用_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地供應，可謂供_blank class=infotextkey>不應求。

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　　雖然_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全國的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>土_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地出讓_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金規模繼續膨脹，但也_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>存在著明顯的區域差別。市場_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>研究機構的數據表明，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2018年_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全國50_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>城市_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>平均樓_blank class=infotextkey>面價同比_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下調了_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>1_blank class=infotextkey>3._blank class=infotextkey>3%，這也是_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>多年來_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>首次出現_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>土_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地價格明顯_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下調。此外，在_blank class=infotextkey>部分_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>城市_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>住宅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>用_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地拍賣_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>火爆的同時，許_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>多_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>城市卻出現了_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>土_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>流拍的現象，僅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2018年_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>住宅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>土_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>流標就_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高達1585宗。

　　更為_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>重要的是，樓市調控的閘門並沒_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有放開。堅持_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>住_blank class=infotextkey>不炒_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”的調控_blank class=infotextkey>原則，各_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>防止_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房價過快_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上漲依然是主基調。

　　據統計，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>今年15月期間_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全國樓市調控_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>政策達_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>205次，比創紀錄的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2018年同比增加_blank class=infotextkey>近_blank class=infotextkey>30%，樓市_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>仍在嚴厲的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>控制之_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中。而在蘇州、_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>合肥等土拍熱點_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>城市也相繼發_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>布調控_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>政策，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>土_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地市場熱度_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上升勢頭暫緩。在調控_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高壓線_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地價穩_blank class=infotextkey>定運行仍是接_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下來的市場主基調。

　　_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>需要特別提出的是，各_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地應進一步加_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>住宅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>用_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地的供給量，尤其應該通過_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有序供應的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>方式起到穩_blank class=infotextkey>定預期的作用。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>住宅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>用_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地的閥門_blank class=infotextkey>不僅應該_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>常開，而且要通過規劃_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>方式_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>建立一種_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有序的、能夠預期的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>土_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地供應模式，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>突出 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>土_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地規劃的科學性和嚴肅性，確_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>保_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>住宅供_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地在規劃期內足額、及時_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>入市，以此打消市場主體的顧慮。

　　隻_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有這樣，我國的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>住宅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>用_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地市場_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>才能進入_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>健康發展的軌道，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房價穩_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>定的目標_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>才能順利實現。