南山铝业(600219)：业绩符合预期 后看特斯拉车板放量

本_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>报告导读：

    _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2019 前_blank class=infotextkey>3 季业绩符_blank class=infotextkey>合预期，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上海_blank class=infotextkey>特斯拉投产放量_blank class=infotextkey>在即，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>作为核心_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>供应_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>商将充分受益，车板放量_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有望_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>明显增厚业绩。

    _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投资要点：

    维持增持评级。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2019前三季归母净利1_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2.6_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>亿元（9.5%），业绩表现基本符_blank class=infotextkey>合预期，展望后续，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上海_blank class=infotextkey>特斯拉投产放量_blank class=infotextkey>在即，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>作为核心_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>供应_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>商将充分受益，其_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高附加值_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>产品_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>汽车板产销_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有望_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>明显_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>增长，从而_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>明显增厚业绩。维持_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2019_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>20_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>21 年EPS 至0.14/0.16/0.19 元,维持目标价_blank class=infotextkey>3._blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2_blank class=infotextkey>3 元，维持增持评级。

    业绩_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>小幅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下滑，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经营_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>现_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>流_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>明显_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>改善。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2019 前三季营_blank class=infotextkey>收/归母净利16_blank class=infotextkey>3._blank class=infotextkey>3/1_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2.6 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>亿元，分别同比+9.0%/9.5%，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>考虑到前三季宏观_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>需求偏弱且_blank class=infotextkey>原铝、氧化铝_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>价格等_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>波动较_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司业绩表现基本符_blank class=infotextkey>合预期。业绩_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>小幅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下滑_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>主要源于期间_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>费用_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上升：①_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>销售_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>费用同比增46.8%约1.6 亿；②研发_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>费用同比增66._blank class=infotextkey>3%约0.5 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>亿元。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>报告_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>期内_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经营_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>现_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>流_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>24.7 亿（+_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>256.9%），.fan_blank class=infotextkey>g558.com/pin_blank class=infotextkey>ghu/ tar_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>平湖，.fan_blank class=infotextkey>g558.com/xixian_blank class=infotextkey>g/ tar_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>西乡，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>明显_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>改善_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>系应_blank class=infotextkey>收票据和存货_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>资_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金占用减_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>少，_blank class=infotextkey>收_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>回_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>销售货款和_blank class=infotextkey>收到_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>政府补助增加所致，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>显示_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>经营_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>情况_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>健康向好。

    _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上海_blank class=infotextkey>特斯拉投产_blank class=infotextkey>在即，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有望_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>带动_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>汽车板_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大幅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>增长。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>目前_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>具备_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>汽车板产能约_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>10 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>万吨，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2019 年8 月_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公告将_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新建_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>10 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>万吨产能，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>预计_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>未来_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>汽车板产能将达_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>20 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>万吨。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>目前已_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>通过_blank class=infotextkey>知名_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新能源车企如_blank class=infotextkey>特斯拉、_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>宝马、通用等的_blank class=infotextkey>材料认证，而_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>作为_blank class=infotextkey>特斯拉_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>汽车板核心_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>供应_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>商_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>我们认为_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上海_blank class=infotextkey>特斯拉投产放量在_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>即将直接_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>带动_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>汽车板_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>业务快速_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>增长，业绩可期。

    催化剂：_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上海_blank class=infotextkey>特斯拉投产，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高端_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>产品_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>不断放量

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