日参院选举：自民、公明两党有望获改选过半数议席

_blank class=infotextkey>原_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>标题：日参院_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选举：自民、.fan_blank class=infotextkey>g558.com/_blank class=infotextkey>gon_blank class=infotextkey>gmin_blank class=infotextkey>g/ tar_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公明两党_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有望_blank class=infotextkey>获_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>改_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选过半数议席

据_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>日本_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>共同社_blank class=infotextkey>报道，.fan_blank class=infotextkey>g558.com/lon_blank class=infotextkey>ghua/ tar_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>龙华，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>关于_blank class=infotextkey>第_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>25届_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>日本参院_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选举，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>共同社14至16日以_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全国约4._blank class=infotextkey>3_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>万_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选民为对象实施了电话舆论_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>调查，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>分析_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选战后期_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>形势。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>调查_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>显示，自民、.fan_blank class=infotextkey>g558.com/_blank class=infotextkey>gon_blank class=infotextkey>gmin_blank class=infotextkey>g/ tar_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公明两个_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>执_blank class=infotextkey>政党_blank class=infotextkey>继续_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>保持势_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>头，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有望_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>超过_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>改_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选1_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>4个议席过半数的6_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>3个，达到70_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>多个。

根据_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>调查，立宪_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>民主党_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有望从_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>改_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选的9个议席增加一倍达到_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>20_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>多个。国民_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>民主党很难维持_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>改_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选的8个议席。_blank class=infotextkey>共产党把确_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>保_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>改_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选议席、_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>日本维_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会把较_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>改_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选议席增加纳入视野。

尚未_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>决_blank class=infotextkey>定_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投票对象的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人在_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选区_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选举_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中占40.5%，在_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>投票对象为_blank class=infotextkey>政党等的_blank class=infotextkey>比例_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>代表_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选举_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中占40.7%。到_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>21日投计票前，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>形势_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>还_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有可能_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>发生_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>变化。

自民党延续_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>7月4、5两日的初期_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选情，在_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全国_blank class=infotextkey>3_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2个_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>改_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选1_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人区_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大半_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>领先。立宪_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>民主、国民_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>民主、_blank class=infotextkey>共产等5党派推举的在野党_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>统一候_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人仅在长野和冲绳_blank class=infotextkey>占据_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>优势。在_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>东北_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地区和_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新潟、_blank class=infotextkey>爱媛，朝野_blank class=infotextkey>政党阵营激烈交锋。

在自民党推举_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>4个_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>改_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>多_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选区_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中的千叶和广岛，该党的_blank class=infotextkey>第二候_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人在当_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选线_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上奋战。_blank class=infotextkey>比例_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>代表_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>预计和_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>3年前_blank class=infotextkey>一样，为19个议席左右。.fan_blank class=infotextkey>g558.com/_blank class=infotextkey>gon_blank class=infotextkey>gmin_blank class=infotextkey>g/ tar_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公明党_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有望_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>达成_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>1_blank class=infotextkey>3议席以_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上的目标，在推举候_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人的7个_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选区_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中的兵_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>库陷入混战。

_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>预计立宪_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>民主党将在_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>1_blank class=infotextkey>3个_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>改_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>多_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选区_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中切实增加议席，推举了_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>多名艺_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人参_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选的_blank class=infotextkey>比例_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>代表_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>方_blank class=infotextkey>面，也将_blank class=infotextkey>获得_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>10个左右。

似乎是国民_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>民主党_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>支持率低迷的反映，该党在_blank class=infotextkey>比例_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>代表和_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>多_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选区_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>持续苦战。_blank class=infotextkey>共产党力争在_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>多_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选区增加议席。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>日本维_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会除_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大本营_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大阪的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2个议席外，_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>还_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有望增加_blank class=infotextkey>比例_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>代表议席。社民党欲死守_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>改_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选的1个议席。_blank class=infotextkey>政治团_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>体_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“令和_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选组_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”确_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>保1个_blank class=infotextkey>比例_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>代表议席的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>可能性增_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大。

_blank class=infotextkey>报道称，根据_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>目前_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>调查来看，对_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>安倍_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>执_blank class=infotextkey>政_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>修_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>改《宪法》态度积极的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>“_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>修宪势力_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>”能否维持国_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>提议_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>修宪所需的三分之二以_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上议席很微妙。

_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>修宪势力是对_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>安倍_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>执_blank class=infotextkey>政_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>修宪态度积极的自民党、.fan_blank class=infotextkey>g558.com/_blank class=infotextkey>gon_blank class=infotextkey>gmin_blank class=infotextkey>g/ tar_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公明党、维_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>会及各党团、无党派_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>议员的总称。_blank class=infotextkey>如果总计_blank class=infotextkey>获得85个议席，石_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>龙，加_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上非_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>改_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选议席，将达到额_blank class=infotextkey>定议席的三分之二以_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上(16_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>4个)。后期_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>选情围绕这85个议席左右展开攻防。

(责编：木胜玉、徐前)